Lisa notes

What is hindsight bias?

Hindsight bias is when we look back and say, “I knew this was going to happen!” even though we didn’t know. It’s sometimes even labeled the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect.

It’s thinking that past events are more predictable than they really are.

In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explains it like this:

“The core of the illusion is that we believe we understand the past, which implies that the future also should be knowable, but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do.”

Here’s an example of hindsight bias.

Say your friend and their spouse break up. You think: looking back, I saw this coming.

Or Monday morning after the Super Bowl, you say you had a feeling that Kansas City was going to lose (even though you didn’t have that feeling prior to the game).

Or this: a jury hears the case of a low-risk surgery that ended in an unpredictable death. Because they know how the story ends (the patient dies), their hindsight bias says the doctor should have known better and done things differently.

Especially when the outcome is negative, we’re more likely to have hindsight bias. Per Kahneman, the pattern is this: the worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.

Why does hindsight bias happen?

Why do we think things are more predictable than they really are?

One reason is because we want life to make sense. We want the world to be predictable. It’s comforting. Our brains are always working to complete a story.

When the unexpected occurs, our minds immediately begin reframing our view of the world to make room for the surprise.

In the Super Bowl example, it’s not that you’re lying about your your intuition. It’s that you’re misremembering your earlier prediction. After the win, your brain reconstructed your past state of mind, and inserted the fact that Tom Brady is an unstoppable quarterback for Tampa Bay, so of course Kansas City would lose.

Also, we generally pay more attention to negative outcomes than positive outcomes, so our hindsight bias distorts our memories even more after a loss than a win.

Is hindsight bias bad?

As with any of the biases, hindsight bias is dangerous because it keeps us from seeing clearly. It prevents us from making correct evaluations.

Hindsight bias can easily lead to overconfidence. If we think we have correctly predicted the past, we’re more apt to make unrealistic predictions about the future, such as in the stock market or in an unhealthy relationship.

Hindsight bias also can hinder us from taking responsibility for and learning from our mistakes. It oversimplifies the past. It causes us to look for a single explanation about an event, instead of examining the many factors of our own behavior that could have caused the outcome.

How can we counter hindsight bias?

We can counter it by considering what could have happened, but didn’t. Give yourself a more balanced view of potential outcomes. Remind yourself the past (and present and future) is complex.

We also can remind ourselves we really can’t predict the future. We can look at data and facts to help make future decisions, but we can’t know for sure what will happen.

Another solutions is to record our thoughts *before* an event. Then look back *after* the event to see if we’re misremembering our earlier predictions. Our selective memories tend to err on the positive side.

How did Jesus handle hindsight bias?

Jesus was assumed to see clearly, thus having no hindsight bias. But his followers didn’t and couldn’t always see clearly. 

Looking back at how the Hebrew people complained in their wilderness wanderings, we think *we* wouldn’t have complained so much. When the Israelites rebelled again and again, we say we knew that was coming. Even when we read of Peter saying he would never deny Christ, we shake our heads and say we could have predicted he would.

Life is clearer looking back than looking ahead. We can look back at the mistakes others have made and say they were predictable, not realizing that we are just as susceptible to them ourselves.

Jesus could have looked at Peter after Peter’s denials and said, “I told you so.” But he didn’t. Instead he offered him bread and fish and forgiveness.

That’s a good model for how we might handle past mistakes as well. Instead of “I knew you were going to mess up,” offer grace for today and strength for tomorrow.

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When’s the last time you said, “I knew it all along“? Share in the comments.

You are on Day 11 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

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Previous: Community Bias {Bias Day 10}
“When You See Differently Than Your Group” 

Next: Bias and Religion {Bias Day 12}
“Is Questioning Your Religion Bad? Or Is It Healthy?”

What is community bias?

Community bias is our tendency to only see what our group wants us to see.

As Brian McLaren explains it, “It’s almost impossible to see what our community doesn’t see.”

McLaren further explains that when we’re in sync with our group, our ideas flow freely. At least within the boundaries of how our group already thinks.

But if we start to think differently from our group? Our minds slow down and it becomes harder to think clearly. At least initially.

What’s an example of community bias?

If you know a teenager or remember your own teenage years, you know how easy it is for a teen to think like her group thinks.

If the group thinks it’s cool to wear bell-bottomed jeans, that’s what she wants to wear, too. She doesn’t even think about it. She trusts her group and accepts it as true. Case closed.

Why does it happen?

We look to our group to learn how to behave. We need to see how others navigate life so we can too. It’s natural and necessary to belong to a group. We like to fit in. We function best in community. It keeps us safe and gives us purpose.

A group gives us shared values and experiences and beliefs that we can adopt without effort, without having to think about it.

We may have many groups: our spiritual group, our work friends, our political allies, our hobby clubs, our families, even our sports affiliations.

Each group likely has its own core set of unspoken beliefs that keep it tied together. That’s not necessarily bad.

But it becomes bad when no longer think for ourselves or when we’re too afraid to ask questions or disagree for fear of disbarment from the group.

Is community bias a bad thing?

Ultimately, yes. The inability to think for ourselves can lead us down dangerous paths, both literally (agreeing to drunk driving because that’s what the group is doing) and figuratively (becoming an engineer because that’s what everyone in the family does, even when it’s not your thing).

Community bias robs people of their individual uniqueness they’re created with.

It’s also dangerous for others outside our community bias. When we think everyone should think like we do (because we’re right, after all!), then everyone else is wrong. When someone disagrees, we alienate them, rob them of opportunities, and destroy relationships.

If you’ve ever questioned whether to leave a church home, and talked to someone within the church about it, you may have quickly brushed up against community bias. Other people still on the inside may not be able to see what you’re seeing at all. 

Today’s political climate is another case in point. In-groups can quickly turn against their own members if they voice any disagreements, even erupting into bullying and violence.

How can we steer clear of community bias?

As with the other biases, it’s hard to watch out for something we don’t know about. So be aware that community bias exists.

• Is there a topic your group refuses to talk about?
• Do they get nervous when you bring up a dissenting view?
• Is everyone being funneled to believe only the party line?

It’s difficult when one’s views become out of sync with their community, but it’s even more difficult if they’re not allowed to talk about it.

As my dad used to say, think for yourself. Don’t believe something just because someone else says it’s true. 

Ask questions. Seek truth. Be honest. Stay curious. Talk to others. Be compassionate. Differ with grace.

How did Jesus handle community bias?

Jesus definitely had to deal with community bias from some of the Jewish people in his day. Jesus was a major disrupter to their current group-think of how religion was meant to be. He came to finish off an old way of life and transform them into a new way of life. They didn’t appreciate that.

Jesus faced major opposition because he didn’t see like the group wanted him to see. He saw differently. The gatekeepers challenged him to the point of death.

What did he do about it? He kept teaching, kept loving, kept welcoming in the outsiders anyway.

Jesus forewarned his new followers that they would be rejected, too, for thinking differently than the group. To not be surprised by it. To keep modeling love anyway.

He commissioned new believers to:

“go back to their communities of unchallenged bias to be gentle disruptors, using images like ‘sheep among wolves,’ ‘light of the world,’ ‘salt of the earth,’ ‘yeast in bread,’ or ‘wise as serpents, innocent as doves’ to help them understand both the danger and beauty of their transformative work.”
– Brian McLaren, Why Don’t They Get It

Can we do that, too?

Be on the lookout for those who have been kicked out of their group, who need loving acceptance, who need to belong without having to conform.

Even if that someone is you.

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Have you been on either the inside or the outside of community bias? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 10 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Halo Effect {Bias Day 9}
“Are Taller People More Successful Than Shorter People?”

Next: Hindsight Bias {Bias Day 11}
“I Knew It All Along! Really?”

Statistics say, overall, taller people do make more money than shorter people over their lifetime. But is it because tall people are smarter and more skilled? No.

It’s more likely because of how tall people are judged. Because they are tall, people also assume they are healthier, stronger, and more competent. Thus they are given more opportunities and viewed more positively. 

It’s the halo effect in action.  

What is the halo effect?

The halo effect is our tendency to make an overall judgment of a person or thing based on one trait (such as height or physical attractiveness).

The halo effect can work both positively and negatively though. If our first impression of a person is good, we easily associate other good qualities to them as well. But if our first impression is bad, we associate other bad qualities to them (it’s called the horn effect when it works this direction).

The halo effect is also known as the “what is beautiful is good” principle.

Here’s an example of the halo effect.

Marketers use the halo effect on us all the time. When your favorite actor or actress pitches a product, you’re more likely to believe their pitch because you like them, and thus buy the product.

Studies have shown that when a food product is labeled “organic,” we also unconsciously assume it has less calories in it and that it is good for us to eat daily, regardless of whether or not it’s true (even when it is “organic” Oreo cookies).

Why does this happen?

The halo effect is a shortcut for our brains. Because our brains are naturally prone to take the easy way out, we prefer to make one judgment quickly and stick with it, rather than have to reevaluate frequently.

We lean toward creating an image that fits with what we already know too. If a person is attractive, surely they also are kind and intelligent.

Why is the halo effect bad for us?

The halo effect disrupts our good judgment. It locks us into a one-track mindset, regardless of what the facts say. It can lead us to make unfair decisions in how we treat other people.

Have you ever “fallen in love at first sight”? Only to discover later that your perfect find wasn’t so perfect after all? That’s the halo effect. 

In education, studies show that more attractive students are given higher grades than less attractive students, even among experienced teachers, due to the halo effect. And if a teacher is viewed as friendly, the students rate them as also more attractive, warm, and likable.

One study has shown that wait staff who are attractive will earn approximately $1,200 more per year in tips than food servers who are viewed as less attractive because the more attractive servers are unconsciously assumed to be more skilled and friendly as well.

How can we counter the halo effect?

Because the halo effect is either used about us or by us almost daily, it’s important to be aware of it so we can counter it.

Notice when you make a snap judgment about a person or a product. Ask yourself why.

• Do you agree with the politician because of her stand on the issues, or just because she is a good public speaker?
• Are you hiring the employee because they met all the right qualifications, or because they dressed nice for the interview so they must be a good employee?

Remember that each person is complex and just because you know one thing about them doesn’t mean you know everything. Gather the facts.

Experts also advise countering the halo effect by slowing down your assessments. Give yourself time to form a proper opinion. Have a set of standards you can compare to. Be willing to hold differing perceptions in your mind instead of making it all one direction.

And when appropriate, consider concrete actions. For example, educators can grade papers anonymously if they want to steer clear of bias.

How did Jesus handle the halo effect?

Jesus wasn’t tempted by the halo effect. Scripture says he could see above it all (Mark 2:8; Luke 9:47), that he knew what was in a person’s heart, regardless of their outward appearances. 

We need to remind ourselves as humans that we do not possess special inside knowledge of a person. We have only partial knowledge, thus we need to be slow to make judgment.

And when possible, don’t pass judgment at all, especially not on outward appearances.

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How have you seen the halo effect in action? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 9 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Loss Aversion {Bias Day 8}
“But it’s mine! Why We Can’t Let Go”

Next: Community Bias {Bias Day 10}
“If You See Differently Than Your Group”

What is loss aversion?

Loss aversion is our preference for avoiding loss more than our preference for acquiring gain.

It hurts to lose something once it is ours. We’ll work harder to keep from losing it than we would to acquire it in the first place.

Here’s an example of loss aversion.

If someone gives you $15 as a birthday gift, you’re pleased. But it won’t compare to the grief you’ll feel if $15 flies out the window of your car.

If you own a $50 vase, you might refuse to sell it to someone offering $75. Yet if you saw the exact same vase in the store, you might not buy it for $25.

In general, once we own something, we become possessive. The ratio of pain from a loss is almost twice that of joy from a gain.

Why does this happen?

Our bias leans toward safety. When measured against each other, threats weigh heavier than opportunities.

“For an organism operating close to the edge of survival, the loss of a day’s food could cause death, whereas the gain of an extra day’s food would not necessarily cause an extra day of life.”

This old saying applies:

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

We simply hate losing things we already own.  

Why is loss aversion bad for us?

Loss aversion causes us to cling too tightly to our things, our thoughts, our money, even when we need to release them. We fear losing what we have. And the more we have to lose, the more fear we have of losing it. Our attachments can make us feel vulnerable and anxious.

Loss aversion operates from a scarcity mindset. It perpetuates stinginess instead of generosity, not only with material things, but also with relationships and ideas. The longer we are in a relationship, for example, the harder it is to let go, even when it’s unhealthy.

We’re more comfortable with the bad we already have, versus the possible good we’re uncertain of. We are biased to believe this:

“Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.” 

How can we manage our loss aversion?

As with the other biases, become aware that loss aversion is a real thing. Notice when it’s being used against you, such as when a streaming service offers you a trial month for free, knowing that once you try the service, you won’t want to let go of it.

Also be willing to change your perspective about things you already have.

For example, when you’re cleaning out a closet, ask yourself if you would buy this blouse today if you saw it in the store. If not, get rid of it. Instead of viewing yourself as already owning it, change your viewpoint to that of a non-owner.

Another strategy to help deal with loss aversion is gratitude. Be content with what you have, when you have it. Hold things loosely, being grateful for time already spent instead of being anxious about a future loss. Develop an abundance mindset.

As Socrates said, “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.”

Also, remember to think long-term. The fear of an impending loss now can prevent you from making a wise decision for your future. Move past a short-term-only framework.

Did Jesus teach about loss aversion?

Jesus taught his followers to focus more on his spiritual kingdom than on a physical kingdom. Material treasures hoarded here can be be destroyed and stolen, he said. Everyone will experience loss of these things. But spiritual treasures in his kingdom are safe (Matthew 6:19-21).

Jesus also taught that life is more than possessions (Matthew 6:25). More than reputation. More than attachments. Being anxious about what you wear or how you look or how much you have will add no value to your life. Instead, he said that seeking the kingdom of God and his righteousness will bring all things into alignment (Matthew 6:33).

Bottom line, Jesus taught it’s better to live with open hands instead of clinched fists. 

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Loss aversion affects us all differently. Maybe you don’t cling to money, but you cling to your schedule, for example. Do you struggle letting go of things you no longer need to keep? Share in the comments.

You are on Day 8 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Scripture Wisdom {Bias Day 7}
“If You Don’t Know What You’re Doing”

Next: Halo Effect {Bias Day 9}
“Are Taller People More Successful?”

As you ready your heart to begin a new week, go to the Source for help.

On Monday, February 8, we’ll begin looking at more biases that hinder our ability to live into our God-given purposes.

We know who can give us vision to see our blindspots. He loves it when we ask him for help.

And he loves to help us.

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You are on Day #7 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Bias Quotes {Bias Day 6}
“5 Quotes to Awaken Our Hidden Biases”

Next: Loss Aversion {Bias Day 8}
“But It’s Mine! Why We Can’t Let Go”