Lisa notes

What is normalcy bias?

We recognize normalcy bias better by its more common name, “the ostrich effect,” or burying your head in the sand.

Normalcy bias is our tendency to deny the possibility of a disaster. It’s our inclination to stick with our “normal” way of thinking, even when we’re faced with undeniable proof that something bad is about to happen. It’s thinking that things in the future will occur like they have in the past (i.e., normal). Tomorrow will be just like today.

It’s our way of avoiding an unpleasant reality.

What’s an example of normalcy bias?

Did you know that before the Roman city of Pompeii was destroyed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, 16,000 people in the city watched it erupt for hours instead of evacuating?

• Normalcy bias is refusing to evacuate when a hurricane is coming.
• Normalcy bias is attempting to cross a flooded river in your car.
• Normalcy bias is gathering with large crowds unmasked during a pandemic.

Normalcy bias is when we think: “It’s never happened to me before, so surely it won’t happen to me now.”

“It won’t be that bad; I can ride it out.”

What makes us stick our heads in the sand?

Normalcy bias is not based on our logic.

It is a defense mechanism that takes over. Our brains tell us everything is normal. Don’t overreact. It’ll be okay. True disasters are rare. It prevents us from believing the seriousness of a situation.

The typical response pattern to a disaster is:

(1) Denial (this can’t be happening)
(2) Deliberation (I need to decide what to do)
(3) Decisive Moment (I must do it now)

When we see our friends ignoring the disaster, too? That nails it; we can stay in denial. We’re social beings. If others aren’t responding to the danger, we don’t want to be the ones who overreact.

Studies show that 70% of people respond initially to a disaster with normalcy bias. Another 15% of people go the opposite direction and panic (blame them for the toilet paper shortage in 2020). The remaining 15% of people can think and act clearly (thank God for them).

How can normalcy bias hurt us?

By keeping us in denial, normalcy bias prevents us from making our best decisions. It discourages us from taking needed action, whether it be gathering supplies, creating an evacuation plan, or avoiding crowds.

Once the disaster hits, it’s often too late to prepare.

Deniers are often the ones who cause the most trouble for first responders if the disaster does occur. Because they weren’t prepared, they’re most likely to need rescues and supplies, and may even lose their lives and bring others down with them. 

How can we avoid the normalcy bias?

We can’t avoid it altogether. But the quicker we move out of the Denial and Deliberation stages and into the Decisive Moment stage, the better.

Start by facing the facts. Even when given undeniable evidence, our brains can still take 8-10 seconds to absorb the information. After the initial shock, try to assess the situation with as clear a head as possible. 

Consider all your options. Gather available information. Make plans for a variety of possibilities. It’s usually better to overprepare than underprepare. Leave room for margin.

Focus on what you need to do, one step at a time. Take each action as soon as it’s needed to avoid analysis paralysis.

Communicate with others. Don’t undertake surviving a disaster alone if possible.

 

How did Jesus handle normalcy bias among his disciples?

Jesus’s disciples asked him privately, “What will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?” (Matthew 24).

Jesus gave them warning signs to be watchful for, such as rumors of wars, betrayal, and false prophets. But even with those, he said the actual day would come as a surprise.

So he told them to stay prepared to take action. If in Judea, run for the hills. If in the fields, don’t go home for your coat.

And finally, he told them that if they remained faithful until then, they would be blessed.

Jesus wanted them to be alert for disaster, but to stay peaceful day to day. To give, to pray, to fast, to forgive. And to love. Above all, always, to love.

It’s the best advice for us, too. We can’t predict what disaster awaits around the next corner (just ask Texas), but we can deal with the one we are in today.

The pandemic isn’t a disaster I could have imagined a year ago. That I’d still be wearing a mask to go to Walmart? That I wouldn’t eat inside a restaurant for a year? That I likely won’t get to be at the hospital for my grandson’s birth in May?

My head was in the sand. But my normalcy bias has since disappeared. 

Yet even still, we can remain hopeful. Even in a pandemic.

And even in it, may we ever respond to each other with God, with love.

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Are you prone to keep your head in the sand? What pulls you out? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 24 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Confidence Bias {Bias Day 23}
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”

Next: Anchoring Bias {Bias Day 25}
“Beware Your Starting Point”

What is confidence bias?

Confidence bias is our inclination to believe confident people, confident answers. Brian McLaren demonstrates it this way in his excellent book, Why Don’t They Get It?:

“I am attracted to confidence, even if it is false.
I often prefer the bold lie to the hesitant truth.”

Here are some examples of confidence bias.

We’ve likely been an example ourselves. “I’m sure that we should turn left, not right!” So our partner turns left based solely on our confidence. (I advise my husband to choose the opposite direction from what I feel confident about; my directional skills are lacking.)

We often are victims of confidence bias with people who are bold in their authority, such as pastors, politicians, physicians, etc. The one who comes across as most confident can often garner the most trust, the most votes, the most compliance, regardless of their genuine competency.

Another example is with marketing. Salesmen can use bold words and confidence to sway our opinions. We believe they must be right about their product because they seem so convinced.

Why do we fall into confidence bias?

When we’re in danger, we want relief fast. Our brains listen to the loudest, most confident voices to follow when we’re feeling threatened. It relieves our anxiety. We think they can keep us safe. 

And sometimes they can. But some people are overconfident, regardless of evidence (i.e., the know-it-alls), and other people may be less confident, even when they’re the most skilled.

We’re drawn to the authoritarian who can assure us they can make everything right again. They’re often engaging and entertaining. They know how to appeal to our emotions to pull us in.

We want to trust people. We want to believe the stories we’re told. When other people are confident about their stories, we buy in (the stranger in the parking lot really does need our $20 for gas so they can drive home to their sick child, right?). We don’t want to believe other people could be lying to us, especially if it’s people we already trust.

“We mistake confidence for competence, and we are all vulnerable to the lies of confident people.” 
– Brian McLaren

Why is confidence bias dangerous?

It’s dangerous because it can lure us into making bad choices. The most confident person isn’t necessarily the most qualified. Con artists take advantage of confidence bias by manipulating us with their surety. We’re then more susceptible to giving them our social security number, our nest egg, our trust.

Confidence bias can convince us to trade in truths for lies.

On the flip side, confidence bias can also make us miss out on good decisions. A highly qualified person may give us excellent advice, but if they are quiet and humble, we may overlook their advice altogether.

How can we guard against confidence bias?

We’re all vulnerable to the confidence bias. We want to believe what feels true. But we need to be aware of con artists and narcissists who want to sell us something for their good, not for our good. They can worm their way into our good favor by promising to meet our needs, when they’re truly only meeting their needs.

Pay attention to context. Listen to your expert auto mechanic about your transmission troubles, but you don’t have to take his advice on who to marry, regardless of how confidently he gives it.   

Do your homework. If someone is offering you a deal that seems too good to be true, look into it further before you believe all their claims. We don’t have to hand over our confidence just because someone is bold enough to ask for it.

Be especially wary when you are in a weakened position. That’s when we’re often most vulnerable and prone to let our guards down.

And when you are conned? Be humble enough to admit it, once you realize it. Don’t be embarrassed that you were the victim of a scam; we all fall prey.

The best scams are ones we never realize we’ve fallen for.

And if we are the overconfident one? That’s a different bias actually, but we should remember we don’t know it all. We can be and often are wrong. We have a lot to learn ourselves. Stay honest; stay humble. 

Again from Brian McLaren:

“Display bold confidence, but invite people to question, think, and test. Where you can’t offer certainty, boldly offer clarity. Where you can’t offer clarity, boldly offer honesty.”

How did Jesus handle confidence bias?

When Jesus interacted with others, he knew he had all the answers. He spoke with authority. He was confident.

And his confidence did attract followers.

Yet he didn’t flaunt his inside knowledge with arrogance. He didn’t use his authority to shame others, to trick others, or to disempower others.

He invited conversation. He participated in dialogues. He asked questions, even when he didn’t need to hear the answers himself.

Jesus also encouraged others to question the current authorities. He didn’t want his disciples to blindly follow the most confident keepers of the law, but to seek out truth for themselves, which ultimately was found in him.

He told them to be as innocent as doves but as wise as serpents.

Brian McLaren explains:

“Yes, Jesus was confident, but he was the very opposite of a con artist. You might say he was a humility artist, a vulnerability artist, an anti-con artist.”

Being confident isn’t bad. But do so with caution and humility. 

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Do you find it easy too to believe the more confident person? Share in the comments.

You are on Day 23 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Conspiracy Bias {Bias Day 22}
“6 Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories” 

Next: Normalcy Bias {Bias Day 24}
“Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?”

Conspiracy theories are having a heyday during the pandemic.

• What do we need to know about them?
• How can we protect ourselves against believing a conspiracy theory?
• How can we help others who have fallen for one? 

Here are 6 things you need to understand about conspiracy bias and conspiracy theories. 

1. What is conspiracy bias?

Conspiracy bias is our vulnerability to believe a sinister story (usually an undercover plot by malicious conspirators) to explain an event or circumstance despite more reasonable explanations otherwise. A conspiracy theory is often thought to be so important that it has to be kept secret from the general public.

Although a conspiracy theory isn’t wrong by default, it is usually discredited because of insufficient evidence.

2. What’s an example of a conspiracy theory?

There’s no shortage of examples of conspiracy theories from 2020, such as:

• Is COVID-19 a hoax?
• Was the virus intentionally spread as a bioweapon?
• Do the vaccines contain microchips to track us?

There is no evidence for any of those theories. They are false. Perhaps they’ll fade away sooner rather than later.

But several conspiracy theories have been popular for decades in the United States and show no signs of slowing down. 

For example, who really killed President John F. Kennedy in 1963? Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone? 

Multiple conspiracy theories have also arisen around Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination. Was there a government contingency involved? 

Smaller but lingering conspiracy theories include things like UFO coverups and Bigfoot sightings.

Since 2017 the QAnon conspiracy theory has gained a mass following, as well as spawning a host of related conspiracies to coincide with it.

3. Why are we susceptible to conspiracy theories?

Every people group has proven to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, both right and left, rich and poor, old and young.

Why? Conspiracy theories meet our psychological need to understand the world, especially when we’re feeling powerless and threatened, as in times of crisis or chaos in society (hello, 2020).

“People don’t like it when things are really random. Randomness is more threatening than having an enemy. You can prepare for an enemy, you can’t prepare for coincidences.”

But particularly troubling in Christian communities is the mounting evidence that Americans who engage in Christian nationalism are also much more likely to engage in conspiracy theories.  

In general, people want someone to blame. So we connect with stories that give us answers and cast others as the villain, but cast us as either the innocent victim or the valiant hero. We crave the sense of belongingness and safety we get with others who are believing the same things.

A conspiracy theory, in an odd way, is more comforting to its adherents than reality is. It offers an easier-to-understand explanation (even though it usually takes several rabbit holes to reach it).

“Conspiracy theories look bitter to those on the outside, but they are sweet to those who hold them.”

4. Why is it dangerous to believe conspiracy theories?

Conspiracy theories throw up obstacles wherever they land.

• Health-related conspiracy theories discourage people from getting proper medical care.
• Government-related conspiracy theories can provoke aggression and even violence.
• Even common office-related conspiracy theories among coworkers can lower job satisfaction and increase stress.

Conspiracy theories can also draw resources away from valid endeavors. They can ultimately lead to new crises, disease outbreaks, extremist groups, and economic downfalls.

As Voltaire said, “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”

When taken to the extreme, conspiracy theories destroy relationships and ruin lives. 

5. How can we reduce conspiracy theories?

“Prebunking” now is a better technique than “debunking” later.

“Engaging in critical thinking before sharing or believing information that has been shared can stop the spread of misinformation.”

Take measures to discredit conspiracy theories before believing them.

• Seek facts from a variety of sources.
• Countercheck stories that seem hard to believe.
• Stay connected with others through stable relationships.
• Seek help when feeling overwhelmed or anxious. 
• Don’t spread internet rumors based on shaky evidence.

If you know someone who believes a conspiracy theory, begin with respect. Making fun of another’s beliefs, no matter how absurd they sound to us, is no way to gain their trust. Don’t accuse them of being wrong or ignorant or weak, and especially not in a public setting.

Acknowledge their emotional attachment to the theory. Often the theories are based on stories of right versus wrong, good versus evil. Don’t attack their core values; talk about their facts instead. Even then, don’t expect immediate results with your facts when they have facts of their own.

Ask questions and listen to their theory to find common ground. Determine what it would take to change their mind. Value the relationship above the disagreement.

Be patient. Most believers of conspiracy theories have no intention of changing their minds. Until they’re willing to question their own assumptions, they likely won’t accept your debunking efforts.

But if you maintain a trusting relationship, when they are ready to talk, you’ll be there to help them walk away from the theory.

6. How did Jesus handle conspiracy theories?

During Jesus’s time on earth, his Jewish followers were a prime audience for conspiracy theories. They were victims of a cruel Roman regime that often left them feeling hopeless and defeated.

But Jesus provided them with a better story, a true story.

Instead of blaming their dashed hopes on the Roman government, throwing them into a victim role, or demanding they rise up and defeat the enemy, taking on a hero role, he pointed them toward a loving Father who cared about them.

And he told them to care for each other (even their enemies).

His bright story was the light they needed.

And it still is. When others around us feel helpless, hopeless, and afraid, we can remind them there is a bigger story of love to believe in. God empowers us to help heal our world through unity and compassion, not suspicion and cynicism.

That’s no conspiracy. That’s grace.

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Want more? Visit the World Economic Forum article, “Conspiracy theories have flourished during the pandemic – here’s how to stop them in their tracks.“ 

Click on this infographic from the World Economic Forum to learn more.

Have you once believed a conspiracy theory? How did you break free? Do you have a friend or relative now who believes one? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 22 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Scripture Image {Bias Day 21}
“What Are You Looking At?”

Next: Confidence Bias {Bias Day 23}
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”

God doesn’t judge people by their weight, their age, their symmetry, their height, their skin color.

Do we?

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You are on Day 21 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: 5 More Bias Quotes {Bias Day 20}
“Cast Off One’s Chains”

Next: Conspiracy Bias {Bias Day 22}
“6 Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories”