Lisa notes

Wisdom’s starting point? Respect for the Lord. Understanding follows.

Get to know the Lord.

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You are on Day 14 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Bias Quotes {Bias Day 13}
“Don’t Be Afraid of the Light—5 Quotes”

Next: Fundamental Attribution Error {Bias Day 15}
“You’re Bad But I’m Just Stressed—Fundamental Attribution Error”

“Understanding and believing are not the same thing.
—Gertrude Stein

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“We would rather be ruined than changed
We would rather die in our dread
Than climb the cross of the moment
And let our illusions die.”  
—W. H. Auden

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“Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem.”
—Woody Allen

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“You will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.”
John 8:32
—Jesus

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You are on Day 13 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Our Biases and Religion {Bias Day 12}
“Is Questioning Your Religion Bad? Or Is It Healthy?”

Next: Scripture {Bias Day 14}
“Wisdom’s Starting Point”

Is it okay to question our religion?

For many people around the world, religious beliefs are sacred. Whether held for a long time or new to the faith, lives are oriented around beliefs in a divine power.

This famous quote by A. W. Tozer explains it like this:

“What comes into our minds when we think about God is the most important thing about us.”

Should believers never have doubts? Should they never question what they believe? Are they immune from blindspots?

Overcoming Biases in Religion

Here are ways to work through four biases regarding religion. Questioning religion isn’t a bad thing, in fact, it can be a healthy way to develop a stronger faith.

(1) But It’s Mine! Why We Can’t Let Go—Loss Aversion {Bias 8}

I grew up in a very conservative church. I held tightly to my rigid beliefs throughout my youth and teen years. But as a young adult, I began seeing scripture in a new light.

I had to face my LOSS AVERSION BIAS, my tendency to hold on to my old faith because it was *my* faith. I’d owned it for a long time. 

Truth doesn’t change, but our understanding of it does. We need to release immature beliefs when we discover more accurate truths, even if it’s painful

(2) Are Taller People More Successful Than Shorter People? The Halo Effect {Bias 9}

If you’ve had a favorite pastor or teacher that you really admired, you understand the inclination to believe that if they’re right about one thing, surely they’re right about everything.

That’s the HALO EFFECT. It’s our tendency to make an overall judgment based on a single trait, such as, if our pastor is a skilled speaker, he also must be a godly husband and a knowledgeable bible scholar.

But reality doesn’t work that way. All of us have flaws. And none of us should be judged by our best trait nor condemned by our worst trait.

With our religious beliefs, while we need to seek counsel from others, we still need to look beyond the pastor, the author, the teacher, and dig out truths for ourselves.

Mom’s advice was right: Don’t judge a book by its cover.

(3) If You See Differently Than Your Group, Beware—Community Bias {Bias 10}

COMMUNITY BIAS is seeing only what our group wants us to see. But what if we start seeing differently?

This one can be painful.

Have you ever changed churches due to a church split or a difference in fundamental beliefs? If so, you know the agony it can cause. We don’t like leaving our groups, and especially not our spiritual families.

But questioning the beliefs and practices of any group is a positive step. We don’t need to blindly follow the crowd. And if we do find discrepancies, ideally we can work with the group to come back into harmony. 

Eliminate any hindrances to questioning your group’s beliefs. If the beliefs are true, they’ll hold up. But if they’re not? You need to know, so together you can change them.

Stay curious.

(4) I Knew It All Along—Hindsight Bias {Bias 11}

HINDSIGHT BIAS gets us into trouble when we become a Monday morning quarterback. We get judgmental about what happened, and wonder why nobody but us saw it coming.

Within our religious communities, we often blame someone’s downfall on the “slippery slope” we saw them on. We say they should have known better.

But in reality, we don’t know what they knew or didn’t know, and we’re in no position to judge.

Humility is key to fighting our bias to correct our memories after the fact. Remember, we’ve never been able to accurately predict the future, so we couldn’t have known all along what was going to happen.

Don’t be too hard on yourself when you lapse. We all learn as we go and nobody gets it right all the time. 

Bottom line: Don’t be afraid to question your beliefs. By remaining open to a clearer understanding of the truth, you can grow a more mature faith.

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Do you ever question your religious beliefs? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 12 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Hindsight Bias {Bias Day 11}
“I Knew It All Along! Really?”

Next: Bias Quotes {Bias Day 13}
“Don’t Be Afraid of the Light—5 Quotes”

What is hindsight bias?

Hindsight bias is when we look back and say, “I knew this was going to happen!” even though we didn’t know. It’s sometimes even labeled the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect.

It’s thinking that past events are more predictable than they really are.

In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explains it like this:

“The core of the illusion is that we believe we understand the past, which implies that the future also should be knowable, but in fact we understand the past less than we believe we do.”

Here’s an example of hindsight bias.

Say your friend and their spouse break up. You think: looking back, I saw this coming.

Or Monday morning after the Super Bowl, you say you had a feeling that Kansas City was going to lose (even though you didn’t have that feeling prior to the game).

Or this: a jury hears the case of a low-risk surgery that ended in an unpredictable death. Because they know how the story ends (the patient dies), their hindsight bias says the doctor should have known better and done things differently.

Especially when the outcome is negative, we’re more likely to have hindsight bias. Per Kahneman, the pattern is this: the worse the consequence, the greater the hindsight bias.

Why does hindsight bias happen?

Why do we think things are more predictable than they really are?

One reason is because we want life to make sense. We want the world to be predictable. It’s comforting. Our brains are always working to complete a story.

When the unexpected occurs, our minds immediately begin reframing our view of the world to make room for the surprise.

In the Super Bowl example, it’s not that you’re lying about your your intuition. It’s that you’re misremembering your earlier prediction. After the win, your brain reconstructed your past state of mind, and inserted the fact that Tom Brady is an unstoppable quarterback for Tampa Bay, so of course Kansas City would lose.

Also, we generally pay more attention to negative outcomes than positive outcomes, so our hindsight bias distorts our memories even more after a loss than a win.

Is hindsight bias bad?

As with any of the biases, hindsight bias is dangerous because it keeps us from seeing clearly. It prevents us from making correct evaluations.

Hindsight bias can easily lead to overconfidence. If we think we have correctly predicted the past, we’re more apt to make unrealistic predictions about the future, such as in the stock market or in an unhealthy relationship.

Hindsight bias also can hinder us from taking responsibility for and learning from our mistakes. It oversimplifies the past. It causes us to look for a single explanation about an event, instead of examining the many factors of our own behavior that could have caused the outcome.

How can we counter hindsight bias?

We can counter it by considering what could have happened, but didn’t. Give yourself a more balanced view of potential outcomes. Remind yourself the past (and present and future) is complex.

We also can remind ourselves we really can’t predict the future. We can look at data and facts to help make future decisions, but we can’t know for sure what will happen.

Another solutions is to record our thoughts *before* an event. Then look back *after* the event to see if we’re misremembering our earlier predictions. Our selective memories tend to err on the positive side.

How did Jesus handle hindsight bias?

Jesus was assumed to see clearly, thus having no hindsight bias. But his followers didn’t and couldn’t always see clearly. 

Looking back at how the Hebrew people complained in their wilderness wanderings, we think *we* wouldn’t have complained so much. When the Israelites rebelled again and again, we say we knew that was coming. Even when we read of Peter saying he would never deny Christ, we shake our heads and say we could have predicted he would.

Life is clearer looking back than looking ahead. We can look back at the mistakes others have made and say they were predictable, not realizing that we are just as susceptible to them ourselves.

Jesus could have looked at Peter after Peter’s denials and said, “I told you so.” But he didn’t. Instead he offered him bread and fish and forgiveness.

That’s a good model for how we might handle past mistakes as well. Instead of “I knew you were going to mess up,” offer grace for today and strength for tomorrow.

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When’s the last time you said, “I knew it all along“? Share in the comments.

You are on Day 11 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

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Previous: Community Bias {Bias Day 10}
“When You See Differently Than Your Group” 

Next: Bias and Religion {Bias Day 12}
“Is Questioning Your Religion Bad? Or Is It Healthy?”