Lisa notes

“The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.” 
—Elbert Hubbard

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“People can’t see what they can’t see unless someone helps them see it..”  
—Brian McLaren

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“You don’t know what you don’t know.”
—Scott Adams (Dilbert)

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“Summing it all up, friends, I’d say you’ll do best by filling your minds and meditating on things true, noble, reputable, authentic, compelling, gracious—the best, not the worst; the beautiful, not the ugly; things to praise, not things to curse.”
—Philippians 4:8 (The Message)

You are on Day 27 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Bias and the Pandemic {Bias Day 26}
“Living (and Dying) with Our Biases During a Pandemic”

Next: Scripture Image {Bias Day 28}
“When You Don’t Know Where to Begin, Start Here. You Can End Here Too.”

What is anchoring bias?

Anchoring bias (or anchoring effect) is when we anchor our decisions too heavily on the first piece of information we receive.

It’s our tendency to use this initial information as our main point of reference, even if it’s inaccurate or irrelevant. It can cause us to jump to a bad conclusion and be blinded to other possibilities.

What’s an example of anchoring bias?

You’re shopping for a sweatshirt. The first one you see costs $700. The second one you see costs $70. It seems like a bargain in comparison, so you buy it, even though it also was over your budget.

Here’s an example given by Daniel Kahneman in his excellent book, Thinking, Fast and Slow.

“Supermarket shoppers encountered a sales promotion for Campbell’s soup at 10% off the regular price. On some days, a sign on the shelf said LIMIT OF 12 PER PERSON. On other days, the sign said NO LIMIT PER PERSON.

Shoppers purchased an average of 7 cans when the limit was in force, twice as many as they bought when the limit was removed.”

Another example: if you weren’t allowed to date until you were 16 years old, 16 becomes the anchor age you rely on for allowing your own children to date.

Why are we susceptible to anchoring?

It’s not clear why we’re prone to anchor. Experts disagree why, but all agree that we are. And strongly. This bias is among the strongest of our mental biases.

Different factors may affect our persistent use with the anchoring bias.

• Some studies say we’re more prone to anchoring when we’re sad; other studies suggest the opposite.
• Some say that experts are more resistant to anchoring, yet even experts are susceptible to anchoring.
• Conscientious people are more prone to it; extroverts are less likely to be affected.

Is anchoring bad?

Anchoring isn’t always bad. It can be helpful to have a starting point as an anchor, if it’s a good one.

But overall, anchoring bias clouds our decision making. And because it’s such a pervasive bias, it often connects with other biases.

For example, the planning fallacy. Once we become fixed on our anchor plan (say, a 3-month schedule to remodel a kitchen), we are slow to budge from it, even when new information becomes available to suggest it’s no longer reasonable.

Anchoring can work against us in multiple ways. (And can also be used as a tool for manipulation.)

• We’re more likely to buy a $20,000 car if we’re first shown a $70,000 car instead of a $2,000 car.
• Doctors can misdiagnose patients based on an initial impression of their symptoms.
• Price tags “marked down” from a ridiculously high number to a lower number are more tempting.
• The first number suggested in a salary negotiation influences all further negotiations.

How can we counter anchoring bias?

It’s unlikely to totally counter this one. It generally stays hidden in our subconscious. But here are some strategies we can use in our attempts to interrupt anchoring bias.

• Slow down your decision. Seek more information. Play with reasons to counter the anchor number. 
• Be aware of the bias. Don’t assume that the anchor number is the number you have to begin negotiations with. Think the opposite.
• Drop your own anchor first. If you’re negotiating a house purchase, decide what your budget allows and work from that number, before you begin looking at houses.

What would Jesus think about anchoring?

Jesus is the one anchor we can rest securely on. He is the standard. All else revolves around him.

Humility, kindness, goodness—anything related to love—can start and end with Jesus, the solid anchor for our soul.

The anchor itself is an ancient symbol of hope. Our hope, our anchor, is based on God’s faithfulness and goodness. We can rely on him to keep us steady, regardless of the waves that come against us.

“We have this hope as an anchor for the soul, firm and secure.”
Hebrews 6:19

How have you seen this bias in your own life or relationships? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 25 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Normalcy Bias {Bias Day 24}
“Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?”

Next: Biases in a Pandemic {Bias Day 26}
“Living (and Dying) with Our Biases During a Pandemic”

What is normalcy bias?

We recognize normalcy bias better by its more common name, “the ostrich effect,” or burying your head in the sand.

Normalcy bias is our tendency to deny the possibility of a disaster. It’s our inclination to stick with our “normal” way of thinking, even when we’re faced with undeniable proof that something bad is about to happen. It’s thinking that things in the future will occur like they have in the past (i.e., normal). Tomorrow will be just like today.

It’s our way of avoiding an unpleasant reality.

What’s an example of normalcy bias?

Did you know that before the Roman city of Pompeii was destroyed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, 16,000 people in the city watched it erupt for hours instead of evacuating?

• Normalcy bias is refusing to evacuate when a hurricane is coming.
• Normalcy bias is attempting to cross a flooded river in your car.
• Normalcy bias is gathering with large crowds unmasked during a pandemic.

Normalcy bias is when we think: “It’s never happened to me before, so surely it won’t happen to me now.”

“It won’t be that bad; I can ride it out.”

What makes us stick our heads in the sand?

Normalcy bias is not based on our logic.

It is a defense mechanism that takes over. Our brains tell us everything is normal. Don’t overreact. It’ll be okay. True disasters are rare. It prevents us from believing the seriousness of a situation.

The typical response pattern to a disaster is:

(1) Denial (this can’t be happening)
(2) Deliberation (I need to decide what to do)
(3) Decisive Moment (I must do it now)

When we see our friends ignoring the disaster, too? That nails it; we can stay in denial. We’re social beings. If others aren’t responding to the danger, we don’t want to be the ones who overreact.

Studies show that 70% of people respond initially to a disaster with normalcy bias. Another 15% of people go the opposite direction and panic (blame them for the toilet paper shortage in 2020). The remaining 15% of people can think and act clearly (thank God for them).

How can normalcy bias hurt us?

By keeping us in denial, normalcy bias prevents us from making our best decisions. It discourages us from taking needed action, whether it be gathering supplies, creating an evacuation plan, or avoiding crowds.

Once the disaster hits, it’s often too late to prepare.

Deniers are often the ones who cause the most trouble for first responders if the disaster does occur. Because they weren’t prepared, they’re most likely to need rescues and supplies, and may even lose their lives and bring others down with them. 

How can we avoid the normalcy bias?

We can’t avoid it altogether. But the quicker we move out of the Denial and Deliberation stages and into the Decisive Moment stage, the better.

Start by facing the facts. Even when given undeniable evidence, our brains can still take 8-10 seconds to absorb the information. After the initial shock, try to assess the situation with as clear a head as possible. 

Consider all your options. Gather available information. Make plans for a variety of possibilities. It’s usually better to overprepare than underprepare. Leave room for margin.

Focus on what you need to do, one step at a time. Take each action as soon as it’s needed to avoid analysis paralysis.

Communicate with others. Don’t undertake surviving a disaster alone if possible.

How did Jesus handle normalcy bias among his disciples?

Jesus’s disciples asked him privately, “What will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?” (Matthew 24).

Jesus gave them warning signs to be watchful for, such as rumors of wars, betrayal, and false prophets. But even with those, he said the actual day would come as a surprise.

So he told them to stay prepared to take action. If in Judea, run for the hills. If in the fields, don’t go home for your coat.

And finally, he told them that if they remained faithful until then, they would be blessed.

Jesus wanted them to be alert for disaster, but to stay peaceful day to day. To give, to pray, to fast, to forgive. And to love. Above all, always, to love.

It’s the best advice for us, too. We can’t predict what disaster awaits around the next corner (just ask Texas), but we can deal with the one we are in today.

The pandemic isn’t a disaster I could have imagined a year ago. That I’d still be wearing a mask to go to Walmart? That I wouldn’t eat inside a restaurant for a year? That I likely won’t get to be at the hospital for my grandson’s birth in May?

My head was in the sand. But my normalcy bias has since disappeared. 

Yet even still, we can remain hopeful. Even in a pandemic.

And even in it, may we ever respond to each other with God, with love.

Are you prone to keep your head in the sand? What pulls you out? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 24 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Confidence Bias {Bias Day 23}
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”

Next: Anchoring Bias {Bias Day 25}
“Beware Your Starting Point”