To see clearly, we need to uncover the biases that cloud our thinking. Join me in this 28-part series to reduce our blindspots.

Introduction to the Series(opens in a new tab)

Day 1: Confirmation Bias 
“How Can You Avoid Your Confirmation Bias?”
What is confirmation bias? How can we avoid it to keep from getting trapped in our own thoughts?

Day 2: Comfort Bias 
“I Don’t Want to Leave My Comfort Zone” 
Staying in your comfort zone may feel safe, but it stunts your growth. Take baby steps to step out of your comfort zone. Rewards await you on the other side.

Day 3: Competency Bias (Dunning-Kruger Effect) 
“Why We Fail to Recognize Our Own Incompetence”
“A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.” Why do we think we know more than we do? And how does our incompetence harm us?

Day 4: Negativity Bias
“How to Stop Being So Negative”
Drifting toward the negative is easy. How can we fight against our negativity bias?

Day 5: Bias and Politics
“Blinded by Politics? Uncover Your Biases”
Our biases can easily blind us and divide us when it comes to politics. Uncover these 4 biases to see more clearly.

Day 6: Bias Quotes
“5 Quotes to Awaken Our Hidden Biases” 
5 quotes to awaken our hidden biases.

Day 7: Scripture Wisdom 
“If You Don’t Know What You’re Doing” 
If you don’t know what you’re doing, James 1:5 reminds us that God loves to help. And you won’t be condescended to when you ask him for help.

Day 8: Loss Aversion
“But It’s Mine! Why We Can’t Let Go” 
Why do we cling so tightly to things once we own them? Learn about the bias of loss aversion. We all have it. But we don’t have to live with it.

Day 9: Halo Effect
“Are Taller People More Successful Than Shorter People?” 
The halo effect causes us to make an overall judgment based one trait, such as taller people are also smarter, more skilled, and more successful. But is it true?

Day 10: Community Bias 
“If You See Differently Than Your Group” 
Community bias is seeing only what our group wants us to see. But what if we start seeing differently?

Day 11: Hindsight Bias
“I Knew It All Along! Really?”
Looking back we say, “I knew it all along.” But did we? Hindsight bias tricks us into thinking life is more predictable than it really is.

Day 12: Bias and Religion
“Is Questioning Your Religion Bad? Or Is It Healthy?”
Is it bad to question our religion? Or is it a necessary and healthy way to grow our faith? Look at 4 ways to overcome our biases in religion.

Day 13: Bias Quotes
“Don’t Be Afraid of the Light—5 Quotes” 
“We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.” – Plato. See 5 quotes on bias.

Day 14: Scripture Wisdom
“Wisdom’s Starting Point” 
Wisdom’s starting point? Respect for the Lord. Understanding follows. Get to know the Lord.

Day 15: Fundamental Attribution Error
“You’re Bad But I’m Just Stressed—Fundamental Attribution Error”
When other people act bad, we assume it’s a character flaw. But when it’s us? It’s just the circumstance. This is fundamental attribution error. How can we fight against it?

Day 16: Declinism Bias 
“Are Things Really Worse Now?”
Is the world in decline? See how we can avoid declinism to see reality as it is, for better or for worse.

Day 17: Framing Effect Bias
“How the Frame Influences the Painting”
The frame influences how we see the painting. This is how the framing effect biases us toward making decisions.

Day 18: Contact Bias
“When You Don’t Know the Other”
It’s hard to relate to people you’ve had no contact with. Your prejudices go unchallenged. Get to know someone different than you. See what happens.

Day 19: Bias and Race 
“Are You Aware of Your Racial Bias?”
Look at these four biases. Can you use them to become more aware of any racial bias you might unknowingly have?

Day 20: 5 More Quotes About Bias 
“Cast Off One’s Chains”
Here are 5 more quotes relating to our biases, including Nelson Mandela’s. Which one resonates most with you?

Day 21: Scripture Image
“What Are You Looking At?”
God doesn’t judge people by their weight, their age, their skin color. Do we? The Lord looks at the heart.

Day 22: Conspiracy Bias
“6 Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories” 
Here are 6 things you need to know about conspiracy theories. Why are we susceptible? How can we reduce them?

Day 23: Confidence Bias 
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”
Our tendency is to believe the most confident one. They’re certain they’re right; shouldn’t we be certain too? Not necessarily. Learn about confidence bias.

Day 24: Normalcy Bias 
“Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?”
“It’ll never happen to me.” That’s normalcy bias, burying your head in the sand. Why do we do it and what can we do about it?

Day 25: Anchoring Bias 
“Beware Your Starting Point”
The first number you hear often drops an anchor in a negotiation. Why are you prone to sticking with the information you hear first? Blame it on anchoring bias. 

Day 26: Bias and the Pandemic
“Living (and Dying) with Our Biases During a Pandemic”
During the pandemic, our biases have been working overtime to fill in the gaps of uncertainty. Can we uncover our blindness to these four biases before they do even more damage to us and others?

Day 27: Bias Quotes
“Think First—5 Quotes About Bias”
“Think first. Talk less. Start today.” -Charles Swindoll. See all 5 quotes about bias.

Day 28: Scripture Image
“When You Don’t Know Where to Begin, Start Here. You Can End Here Too.” 
Our many biases can feel overwhelming. Where do we start? The first step always begins with this. And ends with it, too.

“The world can be so humbling, but only if you let it humble you.”
― Amanda Montell, The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality

Does Confidence Equal Correctness?

My friend was so confident in her answer. So she must be correct, right? We often equate confidence with correctness.

But should we? (As it turns out, my friend was later proven wrong.)

If these questions intrigue you like they do me, Amanda Montell’s wonderful new book, The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality, is a must-read. And if you’re not asking yourself questions like these, perhaps you need to read this book even more?

Navigating a Confusing World

In a world that makes less and less sense to us, we need books like Montell’s to help us think more clearly. The Age of Magical Overthinking exposes the hidden biases of the human mind, reminding us that as intelligent as our brains are, they are also remarkably lazy. They prefer familiar paths over accurate ones.

The older I get, the more I realize there’s more I don’t know than I do know. And perhaps that’s a good thing.

The Value of Doubt

Doubting our certainties may turn out to be one of our more healthy traits. Montell’s book explores several common ways of thinking and systematically dismantles them with research. The title includes the word “magical” because these patterns of thinking often stray from the truth.

But how do we know Montell is right? By putting in the work ourselves and finding out.

For instance, Montell explains that “Magical thinking broadly describes the belief that one’s internal thoughts can affect external events.” We sometimes think we can manifest a better job. Cure cancer with positivity. Transform relationships with good vibes. While this magical thinking might make us feel more in control, does it really change reality? Put it to the test.

Our Magical Biases

The Halo Effect is the first bias that Montell writes about. The Halo Effect happens when we make overall positive assumptions about a person based on one trait. If a person is a wonderful singer, a confident politician, or a charismatic religious leader, our brains on the halo effect may think they’re also a wonderful parent, a smart teacher, and an overall kind human being. But is that necessarily true?

The Proportionality Bias is explained in chapter two as “the psychological craving for big events to have equally big causes,” often fueling conspiracy theories. Our brains want life to make sense. And when it doesn’t, we sometimes create meaning that isn’t accurate. This bias can also prevent us from seeking help when we need it or conducting proper research to investigate deeper.

Other biases in the book include:

• Sunk Cost Fallacy
• Zero-Sum Bias
• Survivorship Bias
• Recency Illusion
• Overconfidence Bias
• Illusory Truth Effect
• Confirmation Bias
• Declinism
• Negativity Bias
• Effort Justification Bias

Increase Curiosity and Awareness

Be warned: Montell doesn’t provide simple solutions to any of these biases in The Age of Magical Overthinking. But by increasing our curiosity and awareness about them, she gets us one step closer towards escaping their influence.

Understanding our flawed logic helps us adjust our thinking. This book reveals our mental missteps more clearly.

Rethinking our thinking never hurts. If we discover we were right all along, great. But if not? That’s important to know; now we can change.

Let’s embrace more questioning, wondering, and seeking. We may already know a lot, but there’s a whole lot more to know.

Share your thoughts in the comments.

Amanda Montell is also the writer of these amazing books: Cultish: The Language of Fanaticism and Wordslut: A Feminist Guide to Taking Back the English Language.

I wrote a series on biases here.

Read More:

• Blinded by Politics? Uncover Your Biases
  Our biases can easily blind us and divide us when it comes to politics. Uncover these 4 biases to see more clearly.
• They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right—Confidence Bias
  Our tendency is to believe the most confident one. They’re certain they’re right; shouldn’t we be certain too? Not necessarily. Learn about confidence bias.
• If You See Differently Than Your Group—Community Bias
  Community bias is seeing only what our group wants us to see. But what if we start seeing differently?

My thanks to NetGalley + Atria Books for the
review copy of The Age of Magical Overthinking

“There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns…things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns…things we don’t know we don’t know.”
– Donald Rumseld

The ladies will be here in a couple of hours. I want to get the honey bun cake in the oven soon.

But I can’t find my mixer. I always keep it in the cabinet by the refrigerator. I open the cabinet door and look inside, but I don’t see it. I look elsewhere; I still can’t find it.

I open the cabinet again. I move things around with my hands.

And there it is. In plain sight. Why didn’t I see it the first time I looked?

There’s a reason. . . .

When We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

We all have blind spots.

Blind spots are things that are true about us and around us, but we can’t see them. In some ways they protect us until we’re capable of seeing the truth. God doesn’t create us with perfect knowledge; we have to grow into it.

But blind spots quickly outlive their usefulness. They hurt not only us, but also those around us, if we don’t outgrow them.

Yet it’s not easy to know what we don’t know.

How can we wake up from our ignorance?

1. BE CURIOUS

Curiosity is a gift. Sometimes I forget to be curious when I think I’ve already figured out the best way to do something or I think I already know everything I need to know.

But there is always more to learn about what we do and why. Ask God for guidance. Stay open. Look deeper at your motives, at your actions, at your thoughts.

2. ASK QUESTIONS

A quick way to find out what we don’t know about ourselves is to ask someone else about us. Pray about who to ask. Others see us in ways we don’t see ourselves.

A close friend or partner can give us insights we’ve been blind about. The information they provide us is an invaluable mirror and a shortcut to greater clarity.

3. WATCH OTHERS

In addition to direct information about ourselves, we also can learn more about ourselves by learning about others.

Listen closer when others are talking. Read widely. See how others respond to situations compared to how we do.

The more we grow and learn about ourselves, the more we grow in relationships with others, too. Maturation contributes to a healthy, whole life.

The More We Look, the More We See

Only when I see my blind spots can I change them.

So where was the mixer the first time I looked in the cabinet?

It was in its spot. Front and center on the cabinet shelf.

But I had been looking for our white mixer. We’d had it for years. Until it finally quit working and we had to throw it away. And bought a black mixer.

The black mixer was sitting where the white mixer once sat. But because I was looking for the white appliance instead of a black one, I didn’t notice it until I was forced to take another look.

I’ll never be aware of all my blind spots. But I want to uncover more and more along the way.

The clearer we see, the more we can flourish.

Have you had any blind spots uncovered lately? Share in the comments.

If you want to read more about our hidden biases, start here with the series, “I just can’t see it! How to uncover hidden biases.”

sharing at these linkups

This is the final day of the Hidden Bias series. It’s been a lot of information. Our many biases can feel overwhelming.

Where do we start with clearing up our biases?

The first step always begins with this. And ends with it, too.

You are on Day 28 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Bias Quotes {Bias Day 27}
“Think First—5 Quotes About Bias”

Next: Start over with Day 1 here
“How Can You Avoid Your Confirmation Bias?”

“The recipe for perpetual ignorance is: be satisfied with your opinions and content with your knowledge.” 
—Elbert Hubbard

~ * ~ * ~

“People can’t see what they can’t see unless someone helps them see it..”  
—Brian McLaren

~ * ~ * ~

~ * ~ * ~

“You don’t know what you don’t know.”
—Scott Adams (Dilbert)

~ * ~ * ~

“Summing it all up, friends, I’d say you’ll do best by filling your minds and meditating on things true, noble, reputable, authentic, compelling, gracious—the best, not the worst; the beautiful, not the ugly; things to praise, not things to curse.”
—Philippians 4:8 (The Message)

You are on Day 27 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Bias and the Pandemic {Bias Day 26}
“Living (and Dying) with Our Biases During a Pandemic”

Next: Scripture Image {Bias Day 28}
“When You Don’t Know Where to Begin, Start Here. You Can End Here Too.”

When There’s Uncertainty

• What’s the latest on coronavirus in schools?
• Even after vaccinations, can we still be infected?
• If I’ve been around a friend of a friend who was exposed, do I need to quarantine too?

So many questions. So much uncertainty. Over the past 12 months we’ve had to be mindful about even our normal daily activities.

It’s been draining.

But during these months of uncertainty, our biases have been working overtime filling in the gaps. 

We’ve looked at four more biases this week in the series, “I Just Can’t See It! How to Uncover Hidden Biases.” Let’s see how they’ve affected us as we continue to walk through a pandemic.

• Conspiracy Bias
• Confidence Bias
• Normalcy Bias
• Anchoring Bias

Our biases are mental shortcuts for our brains to make sense of life. But have our biases hurt us more than helped us?

Yes, they have. We’re not only living through a coronavirus epidemic, we’re also living through a misinformation epidemic.

Perhaps there should be a bias named for those who think they have no biases. It might be the largest group of all. 

Overcoming Our Biases During a Pandemic

Reflect on each of these biases. Can you awaken your awareness on one or all of these? How might they be affecting you? And others?

(1) Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories {Bias 22}

CONSPIRACY THEORIES have tapped into our vulnerability to believe sinister stories to explain the pandemic.

Despite zero evidence for most of these theories, many people have fallen prey. But we’re all susceptible.

Conspiracy theories have made the pandemic even harder to fight. They’ve led people to be suspicious of scientists and ignore their advice. They’ve made others fearful of taking the vaccine. They’ve drawn people’s attention away from helping each other and instead further divided us along political party lines that have nothing to do with the virus itself.

Instead of coming together, we’ve been coming apart. 

To avoid falling for a conspiracy theory, we need to be vigilant about fact-checking our sources. And stay focused on the bigger picture of loving our neighbors (and our enemies) above all else.

(2) They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right—Confidence Bias {Bias 23}

CONFIDENCE BIAS draws our attention to the loudest voice in the room. We’re most likely to believe the person who is the most confident.

But there’s often a huge difference between the most confident and the most competent.

Without recognizing we have this bias, we may fall for confidence over competence. Instead of listening to the person who is the most sure about the cure for COVID-19, we need to listen to the person with the most expertise. Even if they’re humble about it. Maybe especially if they’re humble about it.

Because it’s a novel coronavirus, anyone who is overly confident with all the answers is likely to be wrong on several of them. 

(3) Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?—Normalcy Bias {Bias 24}

NORMALCY BIAS is our tendency to ignore that we’re even in a pandemic. It took a second for our brains to accept what was going on (and some brains longer than others). Early on I often said, “I can’t believe this is really happening.”

Trouble accelerates when we can’t shake our denial, when we ignore the warning signs around us. Normalcy bias caused many to refuse to take precautionary measures against covid because this had never happened to them before, and thus shouldn’t be happening to them now.

To shake off our normalcy bias, we have to get brave and face the facts. Keeping our heads in the sand is appealing for a little while, but eventually it leaves us exposed.

“Americans put on blindfolds when they should have put on masks.”
– Nicholas A. Christakis, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live 

(4) Beware Your Starting Point—Anchoring Bias {Bias 25}

ANCHORING BIAS is when we drop down an anchor on the information we first learned, and have trouble adding new information to it. This bias has also really hurt us during the pandemic.

We began the pandemic with very little information. The science was unclear. The data was minimal. Doctors made the best recommendations they could with the information they had, but they couldn’t know everything.

As months went by, they learned more and more. As more data came in, they updated the recommendations.

But people with the most anchoring bias had trouble believing any updates. They stuck with what they heard first, that there was no need to wear a mask unless you’re a healthcare professional.

They couldn’t pivot to the new information that masks were indeed effective and everyone should wear one. Thus they didn’t adapt their behaviors either.

And the virus continued to spread quickly, with many people getting the disease and losing their lives through no fault of their own.

Seeking to uncover our biases is important work. As we’re seeing during these treacherous times, our biases not only hurt us, but they can also prove fatal to others around us. 

May God give us vision to awaken from our biases and see the truth as much as we’re able as we care for each other. 

Featured Post—Waiting Wisely

As we wait for the pandemic to be over (and there is light at the end of this tunnel, thank you, God!), Donna gives us great advice on how to wait well.

“Waiting is not a waste of time. To the contrary, the secret to good self control, contentment in life and any level of success is embracing the ‘wait’. Waiting often proves providential; God never hurries, but is always on time with His answers.”

Read all of Donna’s here at her blog, Serenity in Suffering, then link up your own blog posts below. 

“Waiting Wisely with Mindfulness”

Thanks for sharing, Donna!

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2. Comment on 1 or 2 other links. Grace & Truth linkup encourages community.   

3. Every host features one entry from the previous week. To be featured, include this button or link back here on your post (mandatory to be featured, but not to participate).

4. If you need help, watch these videos: “What is a link-up?” and “How to link up.” 

We encourage you to follow our hosts on their blogs or social media.

MAREE DEE – Embracing the Unexpected
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Now Let’s Link Up!

How quickly or slowly did you accept the reality of a pandemic? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 26 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Anchoring Bias {Day 25}
“Beware Your Starting Point—Anchoring Bias”

Next: Quotes About Bias {Day 27}
“Think First—5 Quotes About Bias”

What is anchoring bias?

Anchoring bias (or anchoring effect) is when we anchor our decisions too heavily on the first piece of information we receive.

It’s our tendency to use this initial information as our main point of reference, even if it’s inaccurate or irrelevant. It can cause us to jump to a bad conclusion and be blinded to other possibilities.

What’s an example of anchoring bias?

You’re shopping for a sweatshirt. The first one you see costs $700. The second one you see costs $70. It seems like a bargain in comparison, so you buy it, even though it also was over your budget.

Here’s an example given by Daniel Kahneman in his excellent book, Thinking, Fast and Slow.

“Supermarket shoppers encountered a sales promotion for Campbell’s soup at 10% off the regular price. On some days, a sign on the shelf said LIMIT OF 12 PER PERSON. On other days, the sign said NO LIMIT PER PERSON.

Shoppers purchased an average of 7 cans when the limit was in force, twice as many as they bought when the limit was removed.”

Another example: if you weren’t allowed to date until you were 16 years old, 16 becomes the anchor age you rely on for allowing your own children to date.

Why are we susceptible to anchoring?

It’s not clear why we’re prone to anchor. Experts disagree why, but all agree that we are. And strongly. This bias is among the strongest of our mental biases.

Different factors may affect our persistent use with the anchoring bias.

• Some studies say we’re more prone to anchoring when we’re sad; other studies suggest the opposite.
• Some say that experts are more resistant to anchoring, yet even experts are susceptible to anchoring.
• Conscientious people are more prone to it; extroverts are less likely to be affected.

Is anchoring bad?

Anchoring isn’t always bad. It can be helpful to have a starting point as an anchor, if it’s a good one.

But overall, anchoring bias clouds our decision making. And because it’s such a pervasive bias, it often connects with other biases.

For example, the planning fallacy. Once we become fixed on our anchor plan (say, a 3-month schedule to remodel a kitchen), we are slow to budge from it, even when new information becomes available to suggest it’s no longer reasonable.

Anchoring can work against us in multiple ways. (And can also be used as a tool for manipulation.)

• We’re more likely to buy a $20,000 car if we’re first shown a $70,000 car instead of a $2,000 car.
• Doctors can misdiagnose patients based on an initial impression of their symptoms.
• Price tags “marked down” from a ridiculously high number to a lower number are more tempting.
• The first number suggested in a salary negotiation influences all further negotiations.

How can we counter anchoring bias?

It’s unlikely to totally counter this one. It generally stays hidden in our subconscious. But here are some strategies we can use in our attempts to interrupt anchoring bias.

• Slow down your decision. Seek more information. Play with reasons to counter the anchor number. 
• Be aware of the bias. Don’t assume that the anchor number is the number you have to begin negotiations with. Think the opposite.
• Drop your own anchor first. If you’re negotiating a house purchase, decide what your budget allows and work from that number, before you begin looking at houses.

What would Jesus think about anchoring?

Jesus is the one anchor we can rest securely on. He is the standard. All else revolves around him.

Humility, kindness, goodness—anything related to love—can start and end with Jesus, the solid anchor for our soul.

The anchor itself is an ancient symbol of hope. Our hope, our anchor, is based on God’s faithfulness and goodness. We can rely on him to keep us steady, regardless of the waves that come against us.

“We have this hope as an anchor for the soul, firm and secure.”
Hebrews 6:19

How have you seen this bias in your own life or relationships? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 25 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Normalcy Bias {Bias Day 24}
“Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?”

Next: Biases in a Pandemic {Bias Day 26}
“Living (and Dying) with Our Biases During a Pandemic”

What is normalcy bias?

We recognize normalcy bias better by its more common name, “the ostrich effect,” or burying your head in the sand.

Normalcy bias is our tendency to deny the possibility of a disaster. It’s our inclination to stick with our “normal” way of thinking, even when we’re faced with undeniable proof that something bad is about to happen. It’s thinking that things in the future will occur like they have in the past (i.e., normal). Tomorrow will be just like today.

It’s our way of avoiding an unpleasant reality.

What’s an example of normalcy bias?

Did you know that before the Roman city of Pompeii was destroyed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD, 16,000 people in the city watched it erupt for hours instead of evacuating?

• Normalcy bias is refusing to evacuate when a hurricane is coming.
• Normalcy bias is attempting to cross a flooded river in your car.
• Normalcy bias is gathering with large crowds unmasked during a pandemic.

Normalcy bias is when we think: “It’s never happened to me before, so surely it won’t happen to me now.”

“It won’t be that bad; I can ride it out.”

What makes us stick our heads in the sand?

Normalcy bias is not based on our logic.

It is a defense mechanism that takes over. Our brains tell us everything is normal. Don’t overreact. It’ll be okay. True disasters are rare. It prevents us from believing the seriousness of a situation.

The typical response pattern to a disaster is:

(1) Denial (this can’t be happening)
(2) Deliberation (I need to decide what to do)
(3) Decisive Moment (I must do it now)

When we see our friends ignoring the disaster, too? That nails it; we can stay in denial. We’re social beings. If others aren’t responding to the danger, we don’t want to be the ones who overreact.

Studies show that 70% of people respond initially to a disaster with normalcy bias. Another 15% of people go the opposite direction and panic (blame them for the toilet paper shortage in 2020). The remaining 15% of people can think and act clearly (thank God for them).

How can normalcy bias hurt us?

By keeping us in denial, normalcy bias prevents us from making our best decisions. It discourages us from taking needed action, whether it be gathering supplies, creating an evacuation plan, or avoiding crowds.

Once the disaster hits, it’s often too late to prepare.

Deniers are often the ones who cause the most trouble for first responders if the disaster does occur. Because they weren’t prepared, they’re most likely to need rescues and supplies, and may even lose their lives and bring others down with them. 

How can we avoid the normalcy bias?

We can’t avoid it altogether. But the quicker we move out of the Denial and Deliberation stages and into the Decisive Moment stage, the better.

Start by facing the facts. Even when given undeniable evidence, our brains can still take 8-10 seconds to absorb the information. After the initial shock, try to assess the situation with as clear a head as possible. 

Consider all your options. Gather available information. Make plans for a variety of possibilities. It’s usually better to overprepare than underprepare. Leave room for margin.

Focus on what you need to do, one step at a time. Take each action as soon as it’s needed to avoid analysis paralysis.

Communicate with others. Don’t undertake surviving a disaster alone if possible.

How did Jesus handle normalcy bias among his disciples?

Jesus’s disciples asked him privately, “What will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?” (Matthew 24).

Jesus gave them warning signs to be watchful for, such as rumors of wars, betrayal, and false prophets. But even with those, he said the actual day would come as a surprise.

So he told them to stay prepared to take action. If in Judea, run for the hills. If in the fields, don’t go home for your coat.

And finally, he told them that if they remained faithful until then, they would be blessed.

Jesus wanted them to be alert for disaster, but to stay peaceful day to day. To give, to pray, to fast, to forgive. And to love. Above all, always, to love.

It’s the best advice for us, too. We can’t predict what disaster awaits around the next corner (just ask Texas), but we can deal with the one we are in today.

The pandemic isn’t a disaster I could have imagined a year ago. That I’d still be wearing a mask to go to Walmart? That I wouldn’t eat inside a restaurant for a year? That I likely won’t get to be at the hospital for my grandson’s birth in May?

My head was in the sand. But my normalcy bias has since disappeared. 

Yet even still, we can remain hopeful. Even in a pandemic.

And even in it, may we ever respond to each other with God, with love.

Are you prone to keep your head in the sand? What pulls you out? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 24 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Confidence Bias {Bias Day 23}
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”

Next: Anchoring Bias {Bias Day 25}
“Beware Your Starting Point”

What is confidence bias?

Confidence bias is our inclination to believe confident people, confident answers. Brian McLaren demonstrates it this way in his excellent book, Why Don’t They Get It?:

“I am attracted to confidence, even if it is false.
I often prefer the bold lie to the hesitant truth.”

Here are some examples of confidence bias.

We’ve likely been an example ourselves. “I’m sure that we should turn left, not right!” So our partner turns left based solely on our confidence. (I advise my husband to choose the opposite direction from what I feel confident about; my directional skills are lacking.)

We often are victims of confidence bias with people who are bold in their authority, such as pastors, politicians, physicians, etc. The one who comes across as most confident can often garner the most trust, the most votes, the most compliance, regardless of their genuine competency.

Another example is with marketing. Salesmen can use bold words and confidence to sway our opinions. We believe they must be right about their product because they seem so convinced.

Why do we fall into confidence bias?

When we’re in danger, we want relief fast. Our brains listen to the loudest, most confident voices to follow when we’re feeling threatened. It relieves our anxiety. We think they can keep us safe. 

And sometimes they can. But some people are overconfident, regardless of evidence (i.e., the know-it-alls), and other people may be less confident, even when they’re the most skilled.

We’re drawn to the authoritarian who can assure us they can make everything right again. They’re often engaging and entertaining. They know how to appeal to our emotions to pull us in.

We want to trust people. We want to believe the stories we’re told. When other people are confident about their stories, we buy in (the stranger in the parking lot really does need our $20 for gas so they can drive home to their sick child, right?). We don’t want to believe other people could be lying to us, especially if it’s people we already trust.

“We mistake confidence for competence, and we are all vulnerable to the lies of confident people.” 
– Brian McLaren

Why is confidence bias dangerous?

It’s dangerous because it can lure us into making bad choices. The most confident person isn’t necessarily the most qualified. Con artists take advantage of confidence bias by manipulating us with their surety. We’re then more susceptible to giving them our social security number, our nest egg, our trust.

Confidence bias can convince us to trade in truths for lies.

On the flip side, confidence bias can also make us miss out on good decisions. A highly qualified person may give us excellent advice, but if they are quiet and humble, we may overlook their advice altogether.

How can we guard against confidence bias?

We’re all vulnerable to the confidence bias. We want to believe what feels true. But we need to be aware of con artists and narcissists who want to sell us something for their good, not for our good. They can worm their way into our good favor by promising to meet our needs, when they’re truly only meeting their needs.

Pay attention to context. Listen to your expert auto mechanic about your transmission troubles, but you don’t have to take his advice on who to marry, regardless of how confidently he gives it.   

Do your homework. If someone is offering you a deal that seems too good to be true, look into it further before you believe all their claims. We don’t have to hand over our confidence just because someone is bold enough to ask for it.

Be especially wary when you are in a weakened position. That’s when we’re often most vulnerable and prone to let our guards down.

And when you are conned? Be humble enough to admit it, once you realize it. Don’t be embarrassed that you were the victim of a scam; we all fall prey.

The best scams are ones we never realize we’ve fallen for.

And if we are the overconfident one? That’s a different bias actually, but we should remember we don’t know it all. We can be and often are wrong. We have a lot to learn ourselves. Stay honest; stay humble. 

Again from Brian McLaren:

“Display bold confidence, but invite people to question, think, and test. Where you can’t offer certainty, boldly offer clarity. Where you can’t offer clarity, boldly offer honesty.”

How did Jesus handle confidence bias?

When Jesus interacted with others, he knew he had all the answers. He spoke with authority. He was confident.

And his confidence did attract followers.

Yet he didn’t flaunt his inside knowledge with arrogance. He didn’t use his authority to shame others, to trick others, or to disempower others.

He invited conversation. He participated in dialogues. He asked questions, even when he didn’t need to hear the answers himself.

Jesus also encouraged others to question the current authorities. He didn’t want his disciples to blindly follow the most confident keepers of the law, but to seek out truth for themselves, which ultimately was found in him.

He told them to be as innocent as doves but as wise as serpents.

Brian McLaren explains:

“Yes, Jesus was confident, but he was the very opposite of a con artist. You might say he was a humility artist, a vulnerability artist, an anti-con artist.”

Being confident isn’t bad. But do so with caution and humility. 

Do you find it easy too to believe the more confident person? Share in the comments.

You are on Day 23 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Conspiracy Bias {Bias Day 22}
“6 Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories” 

Next: Normalcy Bias {Bias Day 24}
“Think It’ll Never Happen? Is Your Head in the Sand?”

Conspiracy theories are having a heyday during the pandemic.

• What do we need to know about them?
• How can we protect ourselves against believing a conspiracy theory?
• How can we help others who have fallen for one? 

Here are 6 things you need to understand about conspiracy bias and conspiracy theories. 

1. What is conspiracy bias?

Conspiracy bias is our vulnerability to believe a sinister story (usually an undercover plot by malicious conspirators) to explain an event or circumstance despite more reasonable explanations otherwise. A conspiracy theory is often thought to be so important that it has to be kept secret from the general public.

Although a conspiracy theory isn’t wrong by default, it is usually discredited because of insufficient evidence.

2. What’s an example of a conspiracy theory?

There’s no shortage of examples of conspiracy theories from 2020, such as:

• Is COVID-19 a hoax?
• Was the virus intentionally spread as a bioweapon?
• Do the vaccines contain microchips to track us?

There is no evidence for any of those theories. They are false. Perhaps they’ll fade away sooner rather than later.

But several conspiracy theories have been popular for decades in the United States and show no signs of slowing down. 

For example, who really killed President John F. Kennedy in 1963? Did Lee Harvey Oswald act alone? 

Multiple conspiracy theories have also arisen around Martin Luther King Jr.’s assassination. Was there a government contingency involved? 

Smaller but lingering conspiracy theories include things like UFO coverups and Bigfoot sightings.

Since 2017 the QAnon conspiracy theory has gained a mass following, as well as spawning a host of related conspiracies to coincide with it.

3. Why are we susceptible to conspiracy theories?

Every people group has proven to be susceptible to conspiracy theories, both right and left, rich and poor, old and young.

Why? Conspiracy theories meet our psychological need to understand the world, especially when we’re feeling powerless and threatened, as in times of crisis or chaos in society (hello, 2020).

“People don’t like it when things are really random. Randomness is more threatening than having an enemy. You can prepare for an enemy, you can’t prepare for coincidences.”

But particularly troubling in Christian communities is the mounting evidence that Americans who engage in Christian nationalism are also much more likely to engage in conspiracy theories.  

In general, people want someone to blame. So we connect with stories that give us answers and cast others as the villain, but cast us as either the innocent victim or the valiant hero. We crave the sense of belongingness and safety we get with others who are believing the same things.

A conspiracy theory, in an odd way, is more comforting to its adherents than reality is. It offers an easier-to-understand explanation (even though it usually takes several rabbit holes to reach it).

“Conspiracy theories look bitter to those on the outside, but they are sweet to those who hold them.”

4. Why is it dangerous to believe conspiracy theories?

Conspiracy theories throw up obstacles wherever they land.

• Health-related conspiracy theories discourage people from getting proper medical care.
• Government-related conspiracy theories can provoke aggression and even violence.
• Even common office-related conspiracy theories among coworkers can lower job satisfaction and increase stress.

Conspiracy theories can also draw resources away from valid endeavors. They can ultimately lead to new crises, disease outbreaks, extremist groups, and economic downfalls.

As Voltaire said, “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”

When taken to the extreme, conspiracy theories destroy relationships and ruin lives. 

5. How can we reduce conspiracy theories?

“Prebunking” now is a better technique than “debunking” later.

“Engaging in critical thinking before sharing or believing information that has been shared can stop the spread of misinformation.”

Take measures to discredit conspiracy theories before believing them.

• Seek facts from a variety of sources.
• Countercheck stories that seem hard to believe.
• Stay connected with others through stable relationships.
• Seek help when feeling overwhelmed or anxious. 
• Don’t spread internet rumors based on shaky evidence.

If you know someone who believes a conspiracy theory, begin with respect. Making fun of another’s beliefs, no matter how absurd they sound to us, is no way to gain their trust. Don’t accuse them of being wrong or ignorant or weak, and especially not in a public setting.

Acknowledge their emotional attachment to the theory. Often the theories are based on stories of right versus wrong, good versus evil. Don’t attack their core values; talk about their facts instead. Even then, don’t expect immediate results with your facts when they have facts of their own.

Ask questions and listen to their theory to find common ground. Determine what it would take to change their mind. Value the relationship above the disagreement.

Be patient. Most believers of conspiracy theories have no intention of changing their minds. Until they’re willing to question their own assumptions, they likely won’t accept your debunking efforts.

But if you maintain a trusting relationship, when they are ready to talk, you’ll be there to help them walk away from the theory.

6. How did Jesus handle conspiracy theories?

During Jesus’s time on earth, his Jewish followers were a prime audience for conspiracy theories. They were victims of a cruel Roman regime that often left them feeling hopeless and defeated.

But Jesus provided them with a better story, a true story.

Instead of blaming their dashed hopes on the Roman government, throwing them into a victim role, or demanding they rise up and defeat the enemy, taking on a hero role, he pointed them toward a loving Father who cared about them.

And he told them to care for each other (even their enemies).

His bright story was the light they needed.

And it still is. When others around us feel helpless, hopeless, and afraid, we can remind them there is a bigger story of love to believe in. God empowers us to help heal our world through unity and compassion, not suspicion and cynicism.

That’s no conspiracy. That’s grace.

Want more? Visit the World Economic Forum article, “Conspiracy theories have flourished during the pandemic – here’s how to stop them in their tracks.“ 

Click on this infographic from the World Economic Forum to learn more.

Source: World Economic Forum

Have you once believed a conspiracy theory? How did you break free? Do you have a friend or relative now who believes one? Please share in the comments.

You are on Day 22 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: Scripture Image {Bias Day 21}
“What Are You Looking At?”

Next: Confidence Bias {Bias Day 23}
“They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right”

God doesn’t judge people by their weight, their age, their symmetry, their height, their skin color.

Do we?

You are on Day 21 of the series: “How to Uncover Hidden Biases.”

Previous: 5 More Bias Quotes {Bias Day 20}
“Cast Off One’s Chains”

Next: Conspiracy Bias {Bias Day 22}
“6 Things You Need to Know About Conspiracy Theories”