Unraveling the Myths of Confidence: Insights from “The Age of Magical Overthinking”
“The world can be so humbling, but only if you let it humble you.”
― Amanda Montell, The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality
Does Confidence Equal Correctness?
My friend was so confident in her answer. So she must be correct, right? We often equate confidence with correctness.
But should we? (As it turns out, my friend was later proven wrong.)
If these questions intrigue you like they do me, Amanda Montell’s wonderful new book, The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality, is a must-read. And if you’re not asking yourself questions like these, perhaps you need to read this book even more?
Navigating a Confusing World
In a world that makes less and less sense to us, we need books like Montell’s to help us think more clearly. The Age of Magical Overthinking exposes the hidden biases of the human mind, reminding us that as intelligent as our brains are, they are also remarkably lazy. They prefer familiar paths over accurate ones.
The older I get, the more I realize there’s more I don’t know than I do know. And perhaps that’s a good thing.
The Value of Doubt
Doubting our certainties may turn out to be one of our more healthy traits. Montell’s book explores several common ways of thinking and systematically dismantles them with research. The title includes the word “magical” because these patterns of thinking often stray from the truth.
But how do we know Montell is right? By putting in the work ourselves and finding out.
For instance, Montell explains that “Magical thinking broadly describes the belief that one’s internal thoughts can affect external events.” We sometimes think we can manifest a better job. Cure cancer with positivity. Transform relationships with good vibes. While this magical thinking might make us feel more in control, does it really change reality? Put it to the test.
Our Magical Biases
The Halo Effect is the first bias that Montell writes about. The Halo Effect happens when we make overall positive assumptions about a person based on one trait. If a person is a wonderful singer, a confident politician, or a charismatic religious leader, our brains on the halo effect may think they’re also a wonderful parent, a smart teacher, and an overall kind human being. But is that necessarily true?
The Proportionality Bias is explained in chapter two as “the psychological craving for big events to have equally big causes,” often fueling conspiracy theories. Our brains want life to make sense. And when it doesn’t, we sometimes create meaning that isn’t accurate. This bias can also prevent us from seeking help when we need it or conducting proper research to investigate deeper.
Other biases in the book include:
- Sunk Cost Fallacy
- Zero-Sum Bias
- Survivorship Bias
- Recency Illusion
- Overconfidence Bias
- Illusory Truth Effect
- Confirmation Bias
- Declinism
- Negativity Bias
- Effort Justification Bias
Increase Curiosity and Awareness
Be warned: Montell doesn’t provide simple solutions to any of these biases in The Age of Magical Overthinking. But by increasing our curiosity and awareness about them, she gets us one step closer towards escaping their influence.
Understanding our flawed logic helps us adjust our thinking. This book reveals our mental missteps more clearly.
Rethinking our thinking never hurts. If we discover we were right all along, great. But if not? That’s important to know; now we can change.
Let’s embrace more questioning, wondering, and seeking. We may already know a lot, but there’s a whole lot more to know.
Share your thoughts in the comments.
Amanda Montell is also the writer of these amazing books: Cultish: The Language of Fanaticism and Wordslut: A Feminist Guide to Taking Back the English Language.
I wrote a series on biases here.
Read More:
- Blinded by Politics? Uncover Your Biases
Our biases can easily blind us and divide us when it comes to politics. Uncover these 4 biases to see more clearly. - They’re So Confident, They Must Be Right—Confidence Bias
Our tendency is to believe the most confident one. They’re certain they’re right; shouldn’t we be certain too? Not necessarily. Learn about confidence bias. - If You See Differently Than Your Group—Community Bias
Community bias is seeing only what our group wants us to see. But what if we start seeing differently?
My thanks to NetGalley + Atria Books for the
review copy of The Age of Magical Overthinking
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Sounds like another valuable read for those of us who want to know more about our biases and try to understand where we and those who disagree with us are coming from. Thanks, Lisa!
Yes, I found this book quite valuable in helping me see some of my own biases. I have to be reminded again and again that I can’t always believe everything I think. lol.
Sounds like a fascinating read. I’ve been influenced by those who spoke confidently, especially in early marriage. My family tended to present ideas as questions. My husband spoke like something was so. I came to realize this as a style of presenting more than better knowledge or insight 🙂
That’s a great illustration, Debbie! I find that I can be swayed by someone who is really confident…until I understand if that’s just their personality. ha. Then I can be a little more doubtful and require more proof. But also, some people come across as unsure when they are almost always correct. Humans are interesting! 🙂
This sounds like such a fun read! I remember learning bits and pieces about this when studying psychology– our brains are really quite fascinating on how they store and access information but all that is hugely impacted by (while also impacting!) our memories.
sounds so interesting and I didn’t realize there were so many biases. love the phrases “The older I get, the more I realize there’s more I don’t know than I do know. And perhaps that’s a good thing.” Guess my second guessing has its place!
Great thoughts. Sounds like an interesting book. I have a couple of people in my life who are so confident in their statements that I always think they MUST be right, and it’s taken me a few years to realize… mmmm, not necessarily! 🙂 Re-examining your thinking is so vital to growth (and happiness), so I’m glad you mentioned it. Visiting from the Crazy Little Lovebirds linkup.
This book seems like a really good read. We can all benefit from learning about our own biases. And especially from being able to admit that we are all biased. I love what you said about doubt being a good thing. Although sometimes I feel like I take doubt too far sometimes, it is good to be able to say, “Well, I could be wrong, but . . .” Lovely post, Lisa. I love how your posts always encourage us to examine ourselves.
I found this book interesting and searched for it online at my local library. I placed a hold on it and wanted to thank you for sharing your post at The Crazy Little Lovebirds link party #48.